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December Labor-Market Update
The US labor market tightened in December and remains tighter than full employment.
Jan 11
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Pascal Michaillat
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December Labor-Market Update
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December 2024
November Labor-Market Update
US labor-market conditions barely changed between October and November. The labor market is in the vicinity of full employment, with a recession…
Dec 6, 2024
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Pascal Michaillat
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November Labor-Market Update
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November 2024
Explaining the post-pandemic inflation dynamics with a new Phillips curve
A model in which prices respond to slack instead of marginal costs explains well three key facts about post-pandemic inflation dynamics in the United…
Nov 10, 2024
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Pascal Michaillat
10
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Explaining the post-pandemic inflation dynamics with a new Phillips curve
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October Labor-Market Update
The US labor market slackened slightly in October, with labor-market tightness falling to 1.07. The recession probability fell to 26%.
Nov 2, 2024
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Pascal Michaillat
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October Labor-Market Update
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October 2024
September Labor-Market Update
The US labor market tightened slightly in September, with labor-market tightness rebounding to 1.16. The recession probability fell to 36%.
Oct 4, 2024
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Pascal Michaillat
3
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September Labor-Market Update
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September 2024
August Labor-Market Update
The US labor market is now cooler than in 2019, and it approaches full employment. The probability that the US economy has entered a recession creeps up…
Sep 6, 2024
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Pascal Michaillat
2
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August Labor-Market Update
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August 2024
July Labor-Market Update
US labor-market tightness falls to 1.1 in July 2024. The US labor market is now cooler than in 2019, as it approaches full employment.
Aug 2, 2024
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Pascal Michaillat
2
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July Labor-Market Update
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July 2024
June Labor-Market Update
US labor-market tightness is unchanged in June 2024, at 1.2 > 1.
Jul 9, 2024
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Pascal Michaillat
1
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June Labor-Market Update
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June 2024
May Labor-Market Update
US labor-market continues cooling in May 2024, and is almost back to full employment.
Jun 7, 2024
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Pascal Michaillat
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May Labor-Market Update
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May 2024
April Labor-Market Update
US labor-market continues cooling in April 2024, but remains inefficiently tight.
May 4, 2024
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Pascal Michaillat
2
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April Labor-Market Update
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April 2024
March Labor-Market Update
Labor-market numbers for March 2024 are in. The US labor market remains inefficiently tight—in fact it is slightly tighter than in February.
Apr 5, 2024
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Pascal Michaillat
3
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March Labor-Market Update
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March 2024
February Labor-Market Update
US labor-market numbers for February 2024 are in. The labor market remains inefficiently tight, although it is slacker than in January.
Mar 8, 2024
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Pascal Michaillat
1
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February Labor-Market Update
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