Pascal’s Newsletter
Subscribe
Sign in
Home
Website
Archive
About
Latest
Top
Discussions
August Labor-Market Update
The US labor market is now cooler than in 2019, and it approaches full employment. The probability that the US economy has entered a recession creeps up…
Sep 6
•
Pascal Michaillat
2
Share this post
August Labor-Market Update
pmichaillat.substack.com
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
August 2024
So has the recession already started?
Yes, with 40% probability. The US economy may have entered the recession as early as March 2024.
Aug 12
•
Pascal Michaillat
9
Share this post
So has the recession already started?
pmichaillat.substack.com
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
July Labor-Market Update
US labor-market tightness falls to 1.1 in July 2024. The US labor market is now cooler than in 2019, as it approaches full employment.
Aug 2
•
Pascal Michaillat
2
Share this post
July Labor-Market Update
pmichaillat.substack.com
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
1
July 2024
June Labor-Market Update
US labor-market tightness is unchanged in June 2024, at 1.2 > 1.
Jul 9
•
Pascal Michaillat
1
Share this post
June Labor-Market Update
pmichaillat.substack.com
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
June 2024
May Labor-Market Update
US labor-market continues cooling in May 2024, and is almost back to full employment.
Jun 7
•
Pascal Michaillat
Share this post
May Labor-Market Update
pmichaillat.substack.com
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
May 2024
April Labor-Market Update
US labor-market continues cooling in April 2024, but remains inefficiently tight.
May 4
•
Pascal Michaillat
2
Share this post
April Labor-Market Update
pmichaillat.substack.com
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
9
April 2024
March Labor-Market Update
Labor-market numbers for March 2024 are in. The US labor market remains inefficiently tight—in fact it is slightly tighter than in February.
Apr 5
•
Pascal Michaillat
3
Share this post
March Labor-Market Update
pmichaillat.substack.com
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
8
March 2024
February Labor-Market Update
US labor-market numbers for February 2024 are in. The labor market remains inefficiently tight, although it is slacker than in January.
Mar 8
•
Pascal Michaillat
1
Share this post
February Labor-Market Update
pmichaillat.substack.com
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
11
February 2024
January Labor-Market Update
US labor-market numbers for January 2024 are in. The labor market remains inefficiently tight—in fact it tightened very slightly since December.
Feb 5
•
Pascal Michaillat
2
Share this post
January Labor-Market Update
pmichaillat.substack.com
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
January 2024
December Labor-Market Update
US labor-market numbers for December 2023 are in. There are no changes from November. Tightness remains at 1.4 and efficient unemployment remains at…
Jan 8
•
Pascal Michaillat
9
Share this post
December Labor-Market Update
pmichaillat.substack.com
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
December 2023
November Labor-Market Update
US labor-market numbers for November 2023 are in. Labor-market tightness falls slightly to 1.4—still above its efficient value of 1. The efficient…
Dec 8, 2023
•
Pascal Michaillat
3
Share this post
November Labor-Market Update
pmichaillat.substack.com
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
November 2023
October Labor-Market Update
US labor-market numbers for October are in. Labor-market tightness remains around 1.5—still above its efficient value of 1. The Beveridge curve shifted…
Nov 3, 2023
•
Pascal Michaillat
1
Share this post
October Labor-Market Update
pmichaillat.substack.com
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
Share
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please
turn on JavaScript
or unblock scripts
